Water main break decision-theory example (draft) - #45
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Break records are effectively complete only from 1997 (one record in each of 1995 and 1996), so RECORD_START and PANEL_START move to 1997.0. notebooks/dev/ holds the two finalized runners: final_ladder_seq97.py (M1, M2, HGB, GLM walk-forward CV with per-fold caches) and m4_cv.py (final Model 3: additive GP blocks with frailty and iid-year effects, R2D2 budget with a variational posterior, natural-gradient training). watermains_plan.md records the current state and how to rerun; result caches are gitignored and regenerate from scratch.
The dev CV scripts (final_ladder_seq97.py, m4_cv.py) run folds as concurrent workers through a WM_FOLDS subset selector, and all three GP models train at 3000 steps. watermains.ipynb re-executed against the seq97 caches; the M1/M2/HGB/GLM tables and the Model 2 commentary now reflect the 3000-step run. Pooled 7-fold ELPD: M1 -2310.1, M2 -2260.1, HGB -2244.6, GLM -2351.4, M3 -2232.4 (M3 beats tuned HGB).
The seq97 (M1/M2/HGB/GLM) and m4 (M3) fold caches, un-ignored via .gitignore exceptions so a second machine can continue authoring without rerunning the multi-hour CV. Normally gitignored as regenerable; drop before merging to main.
setup-jupyter-mcp.sh is a one-off local JupyterLab/MCP setup helper, not project code; removed from tracking (local copy retained). The frozen-cache .gitignore exception comment no longer references machine-specific handoff.
Records the frozen 7-fold pooled table (M3 beats HGB, -2232.4 vs -2244.6), the beta_year sign change to consistently negative at 3000 steps, the notebook rewire/execution state, and the remaining Model 3 and decision-theory authoring work.
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A docs example that fits a GP survival model to the City of Kitchener open water main data and uses decision theory per Rasmussen and Williams Ch 2, to turn the predictive distribution into a dollar-valued replace or defer decision.
Not ready to merge because a backtest shows that the model doesn't yet beat a naive "replace what broke before" policy because it ignores each pipe's own break history. Next step is a per-pipe frailty (or a slight reframe) before it's ready.